Time has run out for Nicolas Pepe to come good - It needs to happen NOW!
By the end of the 2021/22 season, Nicolas Pepe will be 27 years old, with 2 years left on his £140k per week deal. He joined Arsenal with high expectations and has failed to deliver on this so far. Therefore, it’s fair to say that Pepe’s third season at Arsenal is a make-or-break year for the player.
I, for one, always perceived Pepe as a younger player with lots of time to grow into his talent. However, when researching the contracts of our first team, It suddenly dawned upon me that Pepe is actually approaching his prime! At 26, Pepe should be a more confident and complete player by now.
His talent also implies that he should be a guaranteed starter. Yet, Emery and Arteta favoured starting others ahead of Pepe.
Right now, money is tight across world football. So more than ever, Arsenal cannot afford to find themselves caught in another contract saga. This means Pepe’s future needs to be decided before next summer’s transfer window opens.
Do we renew or Sell Nicolas Pepe? - Neither option is feasible yet
Arsenal finds itself in a bit of a pickle. The prospect of selling, or offering, Pepe a new deal isn’t straightforward.
Realistically, his next contract will be the last ‘big’ contract of Pepe’s career, tying him down until his early 30’s. However, despite encouraging signs last year, it’s still too early to tell whether he will come good relative to his ability. So, doubling down on the £72m investment with a new contract is a risk.
Likewise, Pepe is already one of the top earners at the club. I cannot see the logic in rewarding his underwhelming impact to date, with a shiny new 5-year deal worth £200k. Seriously, nothing Pepe has done to date justifies a pay increase or improved terms of any kind.
Except maybe this:
Conversely, selling Pepe is also futile unless the aim is to cut losses and move on. He is worth an estimated £31.5m and costs Arsenal £21.7m per season (transfer payments + wages). The pandemic alone has devalued players, and Pepe’s hit-and-miss performances haven’t helped either. Finally, his value will decrease by default next summer due to his contract situation too.
Putting all those factors together, selling Pepe based on his form to date isn’t the best course of action. Even if Pepe has a great season, we can’t recoup what we paid. And if he does have a great season, there’d be no need to sell him – duh. Similarly, offering Pepe a new deal seems premature.
The only person who can force the club’s hand is Nicolas Pepe. And that is why this season is so Pivotal for the player.
Pepe's destiny is in his own hands
Pepe has everything at his disposal to make it as a top player. Arsenal also really need what an in-form Pepe brings to the table, given our current predicament. So it’s in everyone’s interest that we unlock the monster-of-a-winger inside the Ivorian consistently.
At the same time, Pepe is seriously frustrating to watch. For example, I’ve seen Pepe pull off some unbelievable pieces of skill. Equally, I cannot count how many times Pepe has shown lapses in concentration. He regularly miscontrols the ball or misplaces a simple pass, and it’s baffling to watch.
Pepe has also been too anonymous in too many games and lacks directness in his play. He’ll try to dribble past 6 players, cut back inside after beating a man on the outside, cut infield, then finally pass sideways/backward. By the time he does all this, the defending players have reorganised, and our attack fizzles out.
It’s criminal for such a talented player to be lacking penetration and variety. For a player with Pepe’s experience, being ineffective in general play is also worrying. He isn’t a young player finding his feet anymore, and he’s also had 2 years to adapt to the league. He needs to iron out these flaws in his game, and I’ll be rooting for him next season.
All 3 Coaches Pepe played under cite mentality as the main issue
Arteta, Emery, and Ljungberg all commented on his laissez-faire attitude. They also criticised his work rate and a lack of internal motivation.
Specifically, Arteta hung Nicolas Pepe out to dry by openly questioning his desire and hunger to be the world’s best. These traits are definitely reflected in Pepe’s performances for Arsenal.
In a lot of ways, he is reminiscent of Ozil. Both players are generational talents. Both players have good stats, yet both suffer from a lack of intensity and aggression.
Excluding his final season at Arsenal, Ozil averaged 19 goal contributions per season. Spookily, Pepe has averaged 19.6 goal contributions across his career (19.5 at Arsenal). Ozil could turn it on for a week, only to appear in the Crimewatch missing person segment the following month. The same is true of Pepe’s time at Arsenal so far.
However... It feels like a natural turning point for Pepe
I do think Pepe will have a year to remember this season, and Arteta has spoken positively about the ‘progress’ Pepe has made at Arsenal.
Pepe moved to a new country as a naturally ‘shy and timid’ character. He was carrying £72m worth of expectation, and pressure, to deliver in an Arsenal shirt. He also joined possibly the worst club and fan base for a player lacking in confidence.
Arteta has indicated that adaptation to the league is no longer an excuse. Pepe also trains hard, with our manager citing a ‘difference’ in Pepe’s hunger to become the best.
All of this tells me that Pepe is (hopefully – you never know with Arteta) back in the manager’s trust. He also appears to be firmly bedded in at Arsenal at last.
With a new, more sound frame of mind, Pepe could very well be ready to leave his mark in the premier league this season.
Pepe Outperformed his XG last year
Statistically, last season was Pepe’s worst season (since leaving Angers in 2017) across almost all categories. Despite this, he outperformed his XG by quite some margin and still registered 21 goal contributions across all comps. This tells me is that Pepe’s natural ability shone through last year.
XG isn’t only a measure of a player’s effectiveness. It takes into account the quality of chances created. This means that Pepe was highly efficient in front of goal, scoring more lower probability chances than expected.
The back end of last season also saw a marked improvement compared to the first half. The red card against Leeds served as a wake-up call to Pepe. Of the 10 league goals he, 9 were registered after his sending off, including his solitary assist.
Again, these numbers are not the standards I want to see from Pepe. But it looks as if Pepe is going to have a consistent run in the team this year. With some new signings, we might also have a midfield capable of moving the ball quickly. All these things should enable Pepe to be more productive, providing he also fixes the elements of his game that need improvement.
Lets Get behind Nicolas Pepe next season
Personally, if it doesn’t happen for Pepe next year, it never will at Arsenal. He either shows us what he’s capable of next season, or we have to cash in on him. I know he has the talent. So long as he shows desire and intensity across the whole campaign, there’s no reason why he couldn’t rack up 20+ EPL goal contributions next season.
A lot will also depend on how the team performs as a whole. But top players have excelled in poor Arsenal teams before. This is the caliber of talent that Pepe possesses. Let’s see if he can deliver (finally).